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NETSPIRES
The August EIA Outlook Sets a New Energy Baseline for Resin Buyers
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook on August 11. July 2026 is the last historical month in the workbook; August and September are forecasts. That distinction matters: a forecast frames cost pressure, but it is not an observed resin quotation.
What the official forecast shows
| EIA benchmark | July 2026 | August 2026 | September 2026 | August vs July |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI spot average ($/bbl) | 80.5 | 82.0 | 81.0 | +1.9% |
| Brent spot average ($/bbl) | 83.8 | 87.0 | 85.0 | +3.9% |
| Mont Belvieu propane ($/gal) | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | +4.9% |
| Henry Hub gas ($/MMBtu) | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.9% |
The rounded gas values hide a small decline: the workbook reports $2.89/MMBtu for July and $2.86 for August. Propane rises from about $0.77/gal to $0.80/gal. September then eases for crude, propane and Brent while Henry Hub remains broadly flat.
Why one benchmark cannot price every resin
Crude and naphtha matter to many European and Asian steam crackers, but a cracker sells a co-product slate: ethylene, propylene, C4 streams and aromatics. If co-product values or polymer demand do not rise with feed cost, part of the increase is absorbed in cracker margin. North American routes have a different exposure: ethane, propane and domestic natural gas influence many U.S. plants. PE is linked to ethylene/ethane economics, while PP may use refinery propylene, steam-cracker propylene or propane dehydrogenation.
A bounded buyer calculation
For a route exposed to the Mont Belvieu propane benchmark, the August feed signal is approximately:
$0.803/gal − $0.765/gal = $0.038/gal
That is about a 5% benchmark move, not a 5% PP price increase. Yield, conversion, polymerization, inventory, freight, contract timing and supplier margin determine how much reaches a resin offer. The useful question is which cost block actually changed.
Conclusion
The August outlook supports a split-route interpretation: oil and naphtha exposure increased in the near-term forecast, U.S. gas stayed comparatively stable, and propane moved upward from July. Use the figures as a route-specific cost signal alongside grade, delivery boundary and contract period—not as a domestic resin price or a fair-margin conclusion.
Sources
• U.S. EIA, [August 2026 STEO archive](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug26.pdf)
• U.S. EIA, [August 2026 STEO Excel data](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug26_base.xlsx)
• U.S. EIA, [STEO release schedule](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/release_schedule.php)
Publication note: August and September values are forecasts; July is the last historical month. This article does not state an observed resin transaction price, supplier quotation or universal pass-through rate.